Guest Lecture, Fox-Wilshire Theater, July 15
Date (happened)
15 July 1951
estimated · probable · preferred
Why
L4.5 individual reading of an envelope-disagreement hold.
Reasoning
The event's own title names July 15; the announcing lecture nid 2098 is dated 1951-07 at `certain` and says the guest service is "next Sunday morning at 10:30"; 1951-07-15 was a Sunday. Three independent constraints — the stated day, the announcing lecture's certain month, and the weekday — agree on one date. `probable` rather than `certain` because the announcement is of an intention and no record of the service itself is in evidence.
before 1951
bound · possible
Reasoning
Qualifying passage ids [553045] belong to telling lecture nids [2098]. Each listed lecture contributes the selected safe envelope year 1951 (MAX of its non-refuted delivery years); 1951 is the MIN across telling lectures.
Told / reported
July 1951
conclusion
Why
dc1-agreement-20261004, pm-actor-551 (PM 8702)
Reasoning
All 2 claims agree on 1951-07: node:2098; node:2101.
-
July 1951
estimated · probable
Why
Lane L7 (#2354) re-derivation. Supersedes in substance, not in storage, the refuted-date told claim(s) on this event; those rows stand per append-only.
Reasoning
Re-derived, not walked down. The existing told claim(s) on this event took their date from a delivery claim on node 2101 that the corpus has since REFUTED, so the corpus was asserting that Neville told this on a day it separately says he did not lecture. That is a contradiction rather than an over-confidence, and lowering the confidence would have hidden it instead of resolving it. The refutation stands and the told claim is the wrong side of it. Node 2101 surviving (non-refuted) claim: 1951-7-?? at `probable`. All claims on the node: 1951-??-?? certain (preferred); 1951-7-?? probable; 1958-1-14 refuted; 1951-7-?? possible. Superseded here: delta 1: 1958-01-14 at `certain` (run `corpus v1 / phase3b`). The telling is dated by its lecture, so with the refuted date removed from consideration the surviving claim is what the telling inherits, at that claim own confidence and no higher.
14 January 1958
stated · refuted
Reasoning
|| v1.1/l7/told-close: the delivery claim this was derived from (nid 2101, 1958-1-14) was refuted by the L7 adjudication (#2363). The corrected told claim from the same lecture stands at 1951-7-?. This row is retired rather than deleted so the derivation history remains readable.