Neville watched on television the Kentucky Derby of two years ago in which Willy Shoemaker misjudged the finishing line and stood up in the saddle, losing the race exactly as the horse's owner Ralph Lowe had dreamed it the night before and had told the jockey.
Date (happened)
4 May 1957
conclusion · probable
Why
dc1-agreement-20261004, pm-actor-551 (PM 8702)
Reasoning
1 claim, no conflict: 1957-05-04 (passage:528824).
4 May 1957
stated · probable · preferred
c. 1966
estimated · refuted
Why
pm-actor-525: refuted by the M7 dating pass (529; 525's readers, packet 015): Contradicted by the well-documented 1957 Kentucky Derby (Shoemaker/Gallant Man/Iron Liege), the actual event Neville describes; his 'two years ago' in the 1968 lecture undercounts the eleven-year gap.
Reasoning
Passage 528824 states the race was two years before the telling. Lecture 1051's authoritative adjudication establishes 1968-01-15 at certain and rejects 1958-11-10, so subtracting two years yields 1966. The phrase is numeric and unhedged, but the packet supplies no month/day for that year's Derby; year-only circa precision avoids importing outside calendar history.
Told
15 January 1968
conclusion
Why
dc1-agreement-20261004, pm-actor-551 (PM 8702)
Reasoning
1 claim, no conflict: 1968-01-15 (node:1051).
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Sources
Source
- Live the Answer Now ¶35 (I was one of the millions watching it. I could hardly believe my eyes, because here is Shoemaker, a truly great jockey, always ahead of the pack at the end of the year.)